資本外流引發(fā)中國經(jīng)濟牛熊之辯

China’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped forfour straight quarters, leading to a fresh round ofwarnings about capital outflows.

中國外匯儲備連續(xù)四個季度出現(xiàn)下降，引發(fā)新一輪關(guān)于資本外流的警告。

Interpreting capital flows has long been a favourite parlour game for Chinese economywatchers. An analyst’s view on “hot money outflows is often an indication of his or herbroader stance towards the world's largest economy.

對于關(guān)注中國經(jīng)濟的觀察人士來說，解讀資本流動一直是他們最喜歡的猜謎游戲。一名分析師對于“熱錢流出的看法，往往說明了他/她對全球第二大經(jīng)濟體的整體看法。

For those who believe China’s economic slowdown is worsening and risks from spiralling debtand wasteful investment are propelling the country toward a financial crisis, the spectre ofcapital flight lurks behind each new data point. They view capital outflows as a sign of waningconfidence in China, and they warn that outflows will drain liquidity from the domesticeconomy, making it harder for companies and local governments to raise funds.

對那些認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟增長放緩加劇，同時來自債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)加重和投資浪費的風(fēng)險正推動中國滑向金融危機的人來說，每一個新的數(shù)據(jù)點背后都隱藏著資本外逃的幽靈。在他們看來，資本外流是人們對中國信心減弱的標(biāo)志，他們警告稱，資本外流將從國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟抽走流動性，加大企業(yè)和地方政府的融資難度。

For more bullish analysts, moderate capital outflows are a sign that China is liberalising capitalcontrols and abandoning its mercantilist obsession with accumulating foreign reserves. Theybelieve that domestic liquidity concerns are unwarranted, since the People's Bank of Chinahas plenty of new mechanisms to expand the money supply to replace the liquidity oncecreated by foreign capital inflows.

對那些比較樂觀的分析師來說，適度資本外流表明中國在放寬資本管制，放棄癡迷于積累外匯儲備的重商主義。他們認(rèn)為，沒有必要為中國國內(nèi)的流動性擔(dān)憂，因為中國央行(PBoC)有很多新的機制可以擴大貨幣供應(yīng)量，取代一度由外資流入創(chuàng)造的流動性。

Now, with the Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates and the Chinese stock marketsuffering big losses, capital flow trends have taken on even greater importance. Higher US ratesare likely to draw capital out of China and other emerging markets, which could place evengreater downward pressure on Chinese share prices.

現(xiàn)在，隨著美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)準(zhǔn)備提高利率，隨著中國股市出現(xiàn)大幅下跌，資本流動趨勢顯得愈發(fā)重要。美國利率上升可能從中國等新興市場吸走資金，這可能給中國股價帶來更大的下行壓力。

“The trend of rising outflows reflects policy measures to facilitate outward investments andthe lack of stable domestic investment opportunities, with an additional short-run boost inoutflows due to stock price volatility and concerns about growth prospects, said EswarPrasad, former head of the China division at the IMF, in a nod to both the bullish and bearishviews.

“資本流出增加的趨勢，反映了放開對外投資的政策措施，也反映了國內(nèi)缺乏穩(wěn)定的投資機會。股價波動和對經(jīng)濟增長前景的擔(dān)憂也是助長流出的短期理由，IMF中國部前負(fù)責(zé)人埃斯瓦爾渠拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，他的言論綜合了樂觀和悲觀兩個陣營的觀點。

After hitting an all-time high of $3.99tn at the end of June 2023, reserves have fallen by$299bn. Analysts broadly agree that China has experienced capital outflows on anunprecedented scale. But they disagree about their size, causes, and the risk to theeconomy.

中國外匯儲備在2023年6月底觸及3.99萬億美元的史上最高峰之后，已經(jīng)減少了2990億美元。分析師們大多同意，中國經(jīng)歷了規(guī)模空前的資本流出。但他們對于資本流出的規(guī)模、原因及其對經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成的風(fēng)險各執(zhí)己見。

Goldman Sachs analysts led by New York-based chief foreign exchange strategist RobinBrooks raised the alarm with their estimate that net capital outflows in the second quarter alonetotalled about $200bn. “Capital outflows have become very sizeable and now eclipse anythingseen in the recent past, Mr Brooks wrote.

以常駐紐約的首席外匯策略師羅賓布魯克斯(Robin Brooks)為首的高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師拉響了警報，他們估計，僅第二季度的凈資本流出總額就達到大約2000億美元。“資本外流的規(guī)模已變得非常可觀，現(xiàn)在已超過近年任何時候，布魯克斯寫道。

JPMorgan has also furrowed its brow at China’s capital flow data. Strategists led by NikolaosPanigirtzoglou in London estimate capital outflows amounted to $520bn combined over the pastfive quarters. “The current capital outflow episode in China is a more sustained and severeepisode relative to those seen in the past, they wrote.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)也對中國的資本流動數(shù)據(jù)感到悲觀。以常駐倫敦的尼可拉斯堠尼吉左格魯(NikolaosPanigirtzoglou)為首的幾名策略師估計，過去五個季度的資本流出總額達到5200億美元。“相對于以往的資本外流，中國此輪資本外流更持久和嚴(yán)重，他們寫道。

Yet several China-based economists caution that Goldman and JPMorgan use estimates that failto account for subtler factors. In a report published several days after Mr Panigirtzoglou’s,JPMorgan’s own chief China economist, Zhu Haibin, obliquely contradicted his colleague’sestimate by citing several reasons that made him believe that the estimates were inflated.

然而，多名中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家告誡稱，高盛和摩根大通所用的估計，沒有考慮到一些比較細微的因素。在潘尼吉左格魯?shù)膱蟾姘l(fā)表幾天后，摩根大通的首席中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家朱海斌婉轉(zhuǎn)地反駁了同事們的估計，他提出了幾條理由，以證明同事們的估算數(shù)據(jù)偏高。

One is a shift in China’s foreign exchange holdings between the central bank and the privatesector. Until recently, the PBoC held almost all foreign exchange within China as officialreserves, while banks, companies, and households held little.

理由之一是中國外匯儲備在央行和私營部門之間的轉(zhuǎn)移。直到不久以前，中國央行持有中國幾乎所有外匯作為官方儲備，而銀行、企業(yè)和家庭持有極少外匯。

This was due largely to the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market. At itspeak, the PBoC purchased hundreds of millions of dollars a month in order to restrain renminbiappreciation. Chinese banks and companies, for their part, were happy to fob off their dollarson to the PBoC, since they stood to profit from the slow but steady renminbi appreciationbetween 2005 and 2023.

這在很大程度上是由于央行干預(yù)匯市。在干預(yù)力度最大的時期，央行為了抑制人民幣升值每月買入數(shù)億美元。而中國的銀行和企業(yè)樂意把美元交給央行，因為在2005年至2023年期間他們獲利于緩慢但穩(wěn)定的人民幣升值。

That changed last year, when the renminbi suffered its first significant full-year depreciation inmore than 20 years. Now many Chinese exporters who receive payments in dollars simply holdthem, rather than buying local currency. Though these dollars no longer swell the centralbank’s coffers, the money remains inside China and so should not be viewed as “outflows,economists say.

這種情況在去年發(fā)生變化;去年人民幣出現(xiàn)逾20年來首次顯著的全年貶值。如今，很多收到美元付款的中國出口企業(yè)選擇持有美元，而不是兌換成人民幣。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們表示，雖然這些美元不再擴大央行的金庫，但這筆錢仍然在中國境內(nèi)，因此不應(yīng)被視為“流出。

Mr Zhu estimates that “corporate balance sheet adjustment explains $205bn in apparentcapital outflow over the past four quarters.

朱海斌估計，“企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表調(diào)整可以解釋過去四個季度貌似的2050億美元資本流出。

“The central bank aims to shift the FX asset holding into the non-government sector. In thatsense, the corporate balance sheet adjustment is a desirable outcome for policymakers, MrZhu wrote.

“央行力求將外匯資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到非政府部門。從這個意義上說，企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表調(diào)整對政策制定者來說是一個可取的結(jié)果，朱海斌寫道。

Economists expect mild capital outflows from China to continue, but most analysts do not seecause for alarm. They note that China’s foreign exchange reserves are still by far the world’slargest and that a significant chunk of capital outflow is due to intentional policy choices by theChinese government, rather than panicked investors seeking an exit.

經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們預(yù)計中國將繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)溫和的資本外流，但大多數(shù)分析師認(rèn)為沒有理由感到恐慌。他們指出，中國仍擁有全球最大外匯儲備，資本外流有很大一部分是中國政府刻意的政策選擇，而不是恐慌的投資者在尋求退出。

Finally, they note that while China has liberalised capital flows significantly, remaining controlsstill severely limit the ability of investors to transfer large sums abroad.

最后，他們指出，雖然中國已經(jīng)顯著放開資本流動限制，但尚存的管制措施依然嚴(yán)重限制投資者將大筆款項轉(zhuǎn)移到境外的能力。

“Concerns about the outflows are exaggerated, especially as regards to outflows in the secondquarter, which stabilised rather than worsened, said Wang Tao, China economist at UBS.

“對于外流的擔(dān)憂被夸大了，尤其是關(guān)于第二季度的流出，流出實際上是企穩(wěn)，而不是惡化了，瑞銀(UBS)首席中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家汪濤表示。

China’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped forfour straight quarters, leading to a fresh round ofwarnings about capital outflows.

中國外匯儲備連續(xù)四個季度出現(xiàn)下降，引發(fā)新一輪關(guān)于資本外流的警告。

Interpreting capital flows has long been a favourite parlour game for Chinese economywatchers. An analyst’s view on “hot money outflows is often an indication of his or herbroader stance towards the world's largest economy.

對于關(guān)注中國經(jīng)濟的觀察人士來說，解讀資本流動一直是他們最喜歡的猜謎游戲。一名分析師對于“熱錢流出的看法，往往說明了他/她對全球第二大經(jīng)濟體的整體看法。

For those who believe China’s economic slowdown is worsening and risks from spiralling debtand wasteful investment are propelling the country toward a financial crisis, the spectre ofcapital flight lurks behind each new data point. They view capital outflows as a sign of waningconfidence in China, and they warn that outflows will drain liquidity from the domesticeconomy, making it harder for companies and local governments to raise funds.

對那些認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟增長放緩加劇，同時來自債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)加重和投資浪費的風(fēng)險正推動中國滑向金融危機的人來說，每一個新的數(shù)據(jù)點背后都隱藏著資本外逃的幽靈。在他們看來，資本外流是人們對中國信心減弱的標(biāo)志，他們警告稱，資本外流將從國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟抽走流動性，加大企業(yè)和地方政府的融資難度。

For more bullish analysts, moderate capital outflows are a sign that China is liberalising capitalcontrols and abandoning its mercantilist obsession with accumulating foreign reserves. Theybelieve that domestic liquidity concerns are unwarranted, since the People's Bank of Chinahas plenty of new mechanisms to expand the money supply to replace the liquidity oncecreated by foreign capital inflows.

對那些比較樂觀的分析師來說，適度資本外流表明中國在放寬資本管制，放棄癡迷于積累外匯儲備的重商主義。他們認(rèn)為，沒有必要為中國國內(nèi)的流動性擔(dān)憂，因為中國央行(PBoC)有很多新的機制可以擴大貨幣供應(yīng)量，取代一度由外資流入創(chuàng)造的流動性。

Now, with the Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates and the Chinese stock marketsuffering big losses, capital flow trends have taken on even greater importance. Higher US ratesare likely to draw capital out of China and other emerging markets, which could place evengreater downward pressure on Chinese share prices.

現(xiàn)在，隨著美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)準(zhǔn)備提高利率，隨著中國股市出現(xiàn)大幅下跌，資本流動趨勢顯得愈發(fā)重要。美國利率上升可能從中國等新興市場吸走資金，這可能給中國股價帶來更大的下行壓力。

“The trend of rising outflows reflects policy measures to facilitate outward investments andthe lack of stable domestic investment opportunities, with an additional short-run boost inoutflows due to stock price volatility and concerns about growth prospects, said EswarPrasad, former head of the China division at the IMF, in a nod to both the bullish and bearishviews.

“資本流出增加的趨勢，反映了放開對外投資的政策措施，也反映了國內(nèi)缺乏穩(wěn)定的投資機會。股價波動和對經(jīng)濟增長前景的擔(dān)憂也是助長流出的短期理由，IMF中國部前負(fù)責(zé)人埃斯瓦爾渠拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，他的言論綜合了樂觀和悲觀兩個陣營的觀點。

After hitting an all-time high of $3.99tn at the end of June 2023, reserves have fallen by$299bn. Analysts broadly agree that China has experienced capital outflows on anunprecedented scale. But they disagree about their size, causes, and the risk to theeconomy.

中國外匯儲備在2023年6月底觸及3.99萬億美元的史上最高峰之后，已經(jīng)減少了2990億美元。分析師們大多同意，中國經(jīng)歷了規(guī)模空前的資本流出。但他們對于資本流出的規(guī)模、原因及其對經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成的風(fēng)險各執(zhí)己見。

Goldman Sachs analysts led by New York-based chief foreign exchange strategist RobinBrooks raised the alarm with their estimate that net capital outflows in the second quarter alonetotalled about $200bn. “Capital outflows have become very sizeable and now eclipse anythingseen in the recent past, Mr Brooks wrote.

以常駐紐約的首席外匯策略師羅賓布魯克斯(Robin Brooks)為首的高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師拉響了警報，他們估計，僅第二季度的凈資本流出總額就達到大約2000億美元。“資本外流的規(guī)模已變得非常可觀，現(xiàn)在已超過近年任何時候，布魯克斯寫道。

JPMorgan has also furrowed its brow at China’s capital flow data. Strategists led by NikolaosPanigirtzoglou in London estimate capital outflows amounted to $520bn combined over the pastfive quarters. “The current capital outflow episode in China is a more sustained and severeepisode relative to those seen in the past, they wrote.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)也對中國的資本流動數(shù)據(jù)感到悲觀。以常駐倫敦的尼可拉斯堠尼吉左格魯(NikolaosPanigirtzoglou)為首的幾名策略師估計，過去五個季度的資本流出總額達到5200億美元。“相對于以往的資本外流，中國此輪資本外流更持久和嚴(yán)重，他們寫道。

Yet several China-based economists caution that Goldman and JPMorgan use estimates that failto account for subtler factors. In a report published several days after Mr Panigirtzoglou’s,JPMorgan’s own chief China economist, Zhu Haibin, obliquely contradicted his colleague’sestimate by citing several reasons that made him believe that the estimates were inflated.

然而，多名中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家告誡稱，高盛和摩根大通所用的估計，沒有考慮到一些比較細微的因素。在潘尼吉左格魯?shù)膱蟾姘l(fā)表幾天后，摩根大通的首席中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家朱海斌婉轉(zhuǎn)地反駁了同事們的估計，他提出了幾條理由，以證明同事們的估算數(shù)據(jù)偏高。

One is a shift in China’s foreign exchange holdings between the central bank and the privatesector. Until recently, the PBoC held almost all foreign exchange within China as officialreserves, while banks, companies, and households held little.

理由之一是中國外匯儲備在央行和私營部門之間的轉(zhuǎn)移。直到不久以前，中國央行持有中國幾乎所有外匯作為官方儲備，而銀行、企業(yè)和家庭持有極少外匯。

This was due largely to the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market. At itspeak, the PBoC purchased hundreds of millions of dollars a month in order to restrain renminbiappreciation. Chinese banks and companies, for their part, were happy to fob off their dollarson to the PBoC, since they stood to profit from the slow but steady renminbi appreciationbetween 2005 and 2023.

這在很大程度上是由于央行干預(yù)匯市。在干預(yù)力度最大的時期，央行為了抑制人民幣升值每月買入數(shù)億美元。而中國的銀行和企業(yè)樂意把美元交給央行，因為在2005年至2023年期間他們獲利于緩慢但穩(wěn)定的人民幣升值。

That changed last year, when the renminbi suffered its first significant full-year depreciation inmore than 20 years. Now many Chinese exporters who receive payments in dollars simply holdthem, rather than buying local currency. Though these dollars no longer swell the centralbank’s coffers, the money remains inside China and so should not be viewed as “outflows,economists say.

這種情況在去年發(fā)生變化;去年人民幣出現(xiàn)逾20年來首次顯著的全年貶值。如今，很多收到美元付款的中國出口企業(yè)選擇持有美元，而不是兌換成人民幣。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們表示，雖然這些美元不再擴大央行的金庫，但這筆錢仍然在中國境內(nèi)，因此不應(yīng)被視為“流出。

Mr Zhu estimates that “corporate balance sheet adjustment explains $205bn in apparentcapital outflow over the past four quarters.

朱海斌估計，“企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表調(diào)整可以解釋過去四個季度貌似的2050億美元資本流出。

“The central bank aims to shift the FX asset holding into the non-government sector. In thatsense, the corporate balance sheet adjustment is a desirable outcome for policymakers, MrZhu wrote.

“央行力求將外匯資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到非政府部門。從這個意義上說，企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表調(diào)整對政策制定者來說是一個可取的結(jié)果，朱海斌寫道。

Economists expect mild capital outflows from China to continue, but most analysts do not seecause for alarm. They note that China’s foreign exchange reserves are still by far the world’slargest and that a significant chunk of capital outflow is due to intentional policy choices by theChinese government, rather than panicked investors seeking an exit.

經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們預(yù)計中國將繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)溫和的資本外流，但大多數(shù)分析師認(rèn)為沒有理由感到恐慌。他們指出，中國仍擁有全球最大外匯儲備，資本外流有很大一部分是中國政府刻意的政策選擇，而不是恐慌的投資者在尋求退出。

Finally, they note that while China has liberalised capital flows significantly, remaining controlsstill severely limit the ability of investors to transfer large sums abroad.

最后，他們指出，雖然中國已經(jīng)顯著放開資本流動限制，但尚存的管制措施依然嚴(yán)重限制投資者將大筆款項轉(zhuǎn)移到境外的能力。

“Concerns about the outflows are exaggerated, especially as regards to outflows in the secondquarter, which stabilised rather than worsened, said Wang Tao, China economist at UBS.

“對于外流的擔(dān)憂被夸大了，尤其是關(guān)于第二季度的流出，流出實際上是企穩(wěn)，而不是惡化了，瑞銀(UBS)首席中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家汪濤表示。