你是“防御性悲觀主義者”嗎？

　　悲觀者抱怨風大，樂觀者期待風停，而防御性悲觀者會調整風帆。有時候適當的悲觀能讓我們做好充足的準備來應對可以預見的困境，這種未雨綢繆的心態就叫defensive pessimism（防御性悲觀）。

　　Defensive pessimism is a strategy that anticipates a negative outcome and then takes steps to avoid that outcome.

　　防御性悲觀是一種預測消極后果并采取相應防范措施的心理策略。

　　Defensive pessimists tend to be very successful people, and their low opinion of the outcome isn't realistic; they use it to motivate themselves to perform better.

　　防御性悲觀主義者往往會是成功人士，他們對于結果的低期望值和現實并不相符，他們只是以此來激勵自己做得更好。

　　Defensive pessimism can be very constructive on the organization level. Financial giant J.P. Morgan Stanley faced the reality that the highly symbolic building they occupied was a prime terrorist target. They responded by implementing escape drills, which they expected everyone to attend and take seriously. This heads-up attitude proved to be lifesaving later on 9/11. In spite of receiving an almost direct hit, they lost only seven employees.

　　防御性悲觀主義對于組織來說也是非常有建設性的。金融巨頭JP摩根斯坦利公司直面自己所在的標志性建筑最容易招致恐怖主義襲擊這一事實，讓每個人都認真參與了逃亡演習。這種未雨綢繆的態度在后來的9?11事件中挽救了許多生命。盡管他們受到了直接襲擊，但只有7名雇員喪生。