中國對(duì)朝立場(chǎng)面臨挑戰(zhàn) China stance on N Korea faces Security Co
China’s strategy to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions faces a crucial test in the coming days as the UN Security Council presses ahead with a resolution, and possible new sanctions, against China’s neighbour and sometime ally.
中國遏制朝鮮核抱負(fù)的戰(zhàn)略將在未來幾天面臨關(guān)鍵考驗(yàn)。目前聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)正推動(dòng)通過決議，可能對(duì)中國的這個(gè)鄰國（有時(shí)還是盟友）施加新的制裁。
Experts on both sides of the Pacific say Beijing has been surprised by the US’s tough response to Pyongyang’s testing of a nuclear warhead in January and launch this month of a long-range rocket. The US is asking China to impose sweeping economic sanctions on Pyongyang, including an oil embargo.
太平洋兩岸的專家們表示，美國對(duì)平壤今年1月份核彈頭試驗(yàn)和本月發(fā)射遠(yuǎn)程火箭做出了強(qiáng)硬的回應(yīng)，這讓北京方面感到意外。美國要求中國對(duì)平壤施加包括石油禁運(yùn)在內(nèi)的全面經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁。
“My sense from talking with the Chinese is that they were quite surprised that the US came to them with such a big ask,” says Bonnie Glaser of Washington-based think-tank the Center for International and Strategic Studies. “They were expecting something along the lines of what had been done in the past, a marginally tougher UN Security Council resolution and tough rhetoric, and move on.”
總部位于華盛頓的智庫——戰(zhàn)略與國際問題研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)表示：“從與中方人士的談話中，我感到他們對(duì)美國提出這么高的要求感到相當(dāng)意外。他們預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)像過去那樣，聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)通過稍微強(qiáng)硬一點(diǎn)的決議，做出嚴(yán)厲譴責(zé)，然后事情就過去了。”
One measure Washington has rolled out is a proposal to base a new anti-missile defence system in South Korea. This has infuriated Beijing, which says the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) platform could threaten its own nuclear deterrent.
華盛頓已經(jīng)推出的一個(gè)舉措是，提議在韓國部署新的反導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)。這激怒了北京，后者表示，末段高空區(qū)域防御系統(tǒng)(THAAD)平臺(tái)可能威脅到中國的核威懾力量。
The US has also said it will press ahead with tough unilateral secondary sanctions, with bills working their way through Congress that could target some Chinese banks and companies working with North Korea.
美國還表示，將推動(dòng)出臺(tái)嚴(yán)厲的二級(jí)單邊制裁措施，美國國會(huì)正在審議的一些法案可能針對(duì)某些與朝鮮有業(yè)務(wù)來往的中資銀行和公司。
The measures are also intended to stiffen Beijing’s resolve and make it consider cutting off its economic lifeline to Pyongyang. Beijing, however, not only fears the consequences of further antagonising North Korea, it is also anxious to prevent the downfall of the regime.
這些措施也意在強(qiáng)化北京方面的決心，促使后者考慮切斷平壤的經(jīng)濟(jì)命脈。然而，北京方面不僅擔(dān)心進(jìn)一步激怒朝鮮的后果，而且還急于阻止朝鮮政權(quán)倒臺(tái)。
“North Korea is a nuclear-armed country on the brink of collapse,” says Tong Zhao, an expert on nuclear disarmament at the Beijing-based Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre.
位于北京的卡內(nèi)基-清華全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)核裁軍專家趙通表示：“朝鮮是一個(gè)處于崩潰邊緣的核武國家。”
“Making it into an enemy is the last thing China wants to see, because China can be directly threatened. I think it is unfair for the international community to make that demand on China.”
“把它變成敵人是中國最不想看到的事情，因?yàn)橹袊赡苤苯邮艿酵{。我認(rèn)為，國際社會(huì)對(duì)中國提出這種要求是不公平的。”
Beijing appears to have adopted a policy of publicly paying lip service to tougher sanctions while privately working the levers behind the scenes. Wang Yi, foreign minister, told Reuters in Munich last week that the UN should adopt a resolution to ensure “North Korea will pay the necessary price and to show there is a consequence for its behaviour”.
中國政府采取的政策似乎是口頭上公開支持對(duì)朝鮮實(shí)施更嚴(yán)厲制裁，私下里卻在幕后斡旋。中國外交部長王毅上周在慕尼黑告訴路透社(Reuters)，聯(lián)合國應(yīng)出臺(tái)一項(xiàng)決議，確保“朝鮮將付出必要的代價(jià)并表明朝鮮要為其行為承擔(dān)后果”。
The US has been emboldened by the recent Iran nuclear deal, which showed how tough sanctions can work to change the behaviour of “rogue states”. But these arguments do not appear to be working in Beijing, where there is fear for stability on the Korean peninsula.
最近生效的伊朗核協(xié)議使美國得到鼓舞，該協(xié)議表明，嚴(yán)厲制裁能夠改變“無賴國家”的行為。但這些主張對(duì)中國似乎沒有說服力，中國對(duì)朝鮮半島穩(wěn)定感到擔(dān)憂。
“Yes they want de-nuclearisation but only under the precondition of the preservation of stability in North Korea,” says Ms Glaser. “The Chinese have no stomach for regime change in North Korea.”
“沒錯(cuò)，他們希望實(shí)現(xiàn)無核化，但前提條件是維護(hù)朝鮮的穩(wěn)定，”葛來儀表示，“中國不希望朝鮮發(fā)生政權(quán)更迭。”
When John Kerry, US secretary of state, travelled to Beijing and urged the Chinese government to embargo oil shipments to North Korea, he was rebuffed by Mr Wang, according to experts.
據(jù)專家稱，美國國務(wù)卿約翰克里(John Kerry)訪問北京并敦促中國政府對(duì)朝鮮實(shí)施石油禁運(yùn)，遭到了王毅的拒絕。
Meanwhile, the opposite approach seems to be in the air in Beijing. Cui Lei, a researcher at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies, wrote a widely followed opinion piece in a Singapore newspaper last month advocating treating North Korea similarly to India and Pakistan, which both tested nuclear bombs in 1998.
與此同時(shí)，中國似乎在試探相反的策略。北京中國國際問題研究院(China Institute of International Studies)研究員崔磊上月在一份新加坡報(bào)紙上發(fā)表了一篇廣受關(guān)注的評(píng)論文章，支持像對(duì)待印度和巴基斯坦那樣對(duì)待朝鮮。前兩個(gè)國家曾在1998年進(jìn)行核彈實(shí)驗(yàn)。
“We should readopt our India-Pakistan approach: acquiescence in North Korea’s nuclearisation, while refusing to legalise it,” he wrote.
他寫道：“我認(rèn)為，可以考慮采取印巴模式，默認(rèn)朝鮮的擁核事實(shí)，但不給予其合法地位。”
China’s strategy to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions faces a crucial test in the coming days as the UN Security Council presses ahead with a resolution, and possible new sanctions, against China’s neighbour and sometime ally.
中國遏制朝鮮核抱負(fù)的戰(zhàn)略將在未來幾天面臨關(guān)鍵考驗(yàn)。目前聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)正推動(dòng)通過決議，可能對(duì)中國的這個(gè)鄰國（有時(shí)還是盟友）施加新的制裁。
Experts on both sides of the Pacific say Beijing has been surprised by the US’s tough response to Pyongyang’s testing of a nuclear warhead in January and launch this month of a long-range rocket. The US is asking China to impose sweeping economic sanctions on Pyongyang, including an oil embargo.
太平洋兩岸的專家們表示，美國對(duì)平壤今年1月份核彈頭試驗(yàn)和本月發(fā)射遠(yuǎn)程火箭做出了強(qiáng)硬的回應(yīng)，這讓北京方面感到意外。美國要求中國對(duì)平壤施加包括石油禁運(yùn)在內(nèi)的全面經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁。
“My sense from talking with the Chinese is that they were quite surprised that the US came to them with such a big ask,” says Bonnie Glaser of Washington-based think-tank the Center for International and Strategic Studies. “They were expecting something along the lines of what had been done in the past, a marginally tougher UN Security Council resolution and tough rhetoric, and move on.”
總部位于華盛頓的智庫——戰(zhàn)略與國際問題研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)表示：“從與中方人士的談話中，我感到他們對(duì)美國提出這么高的要求感到相當(dāng)意外。他們預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)像過去那樣，聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)通過稍微強(qiáng)硬一點(diǎn)的決議，做出嚴(yán)厲譴責(zé)，然后事情就過去了。”
One measure Washington has rolled out is a proposal to base a new anti-missile defence system in South Korea. This has infuriated Beijing, which says the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) platform could threaten its own nuclear deterrent.
華盛頓已經(jīng)推出的一個(gè)舉措是，提議在韓國部署新的反導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)。這激怒了北京，后者表示，末段高空區(qū)域防御系統(tǒng)(THAAD)平臺(tái)可能威脅到中國的核威懾力量。
The US has also said it will press ahead with tough unilateral secondary sanctions, with bills working their way through Congress that could target some Chinese banks and companies working with North Korea.
美國還表示，將推動(dòng)出臺(tái)嚴(yán)厲的二級(jí)單邊制裁措施，美國國會(huì)正在審議的一些法案可能針對(duì)某些與朝鮮有業(yè)務(wù)來往的中資銀行和公司。
The measures are also intended to stiffen Beijing’s resolve and make it consider cutting off its economic lifeline to Pyongyang. Beijing, however, not only fears the consequences of further antagonising North Korea, it is also anxious to prevent the downfall of the regime.
這些措施也意在強(qiáng)化北京方面的決心，促使后者考慮切斷平壤的經(jīng)濟(jì)命脈。然而，北京方面不僅擔(dān)心進(jìn)一步激怒朝鮮的后果，而且還急于阻止朝鮮政權(quán)倒臺(tái)。
“North Korea is a nuclear-armed country on the brink of collapse,” says Tong Zhao, an expert on nuclear disarmament at the Beijing-based Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre.
位于北京的卡內(nèi)基-清華全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)核裁軍專家趙通表示：“朝鮮是一個(gè)處于崩潰邊緣的核武國家。”
“Making it into an enemy is the last thing China wants to see, because China can be directly threatened. I think it is unfair for the international community to make that demand on China.”
“把它變成敵人是中國最不想看到的事情，因?yàn)橹袊赡苤苯邮艿酵{。我認(rèn)為，國際社會(huì)對(duì)中國提出這種要求是不公平的。”
Beijing appears to have adopted a policy of publicly paying lip service to tougher sanctions while privately working the levers behind the scenes. Wang Yi, foreign minister, told Reuters in Munich last week that the UN should adopt a resolution to ensure “North Korea will pay the necessary price and to show there is a consequence for its behaviour”.
中國政府采取的政策似乎是口頭上公開支持對(duì)朝鮮實(shí)施更嚴(yán)厲制裁，私下里卻在幕后斡旋。中國外交部長王毅上周在慕尼黑告訴路透社(Reuters)，聯(lián)合國應(yīng)出臺(tái)一項(xiàng)決議，確保“朝鮮將付出必要的代價(jià)并表明朝鮮要為其行為承擔(dān)后果”。
The US has been emboldened by the recent Iran nuclear deal, which showed how tough sanctions can work to change the behaviour of “rogue states”. But these arguments do not appear to be working in Beijing, where there is fear for stability on the Korean peninsula.
最近生效的伊朗核協(xié)議使美國得到鼓舞，該協(xié)議表明，嚴(yán)厲制裁能夠改變“無賴國家”的行為。但這些主張對(duì)中國似乎沒有說服力，中國對(duì)朝鮮半島穩(wěn)定感到擔(dān)憂。
“Yes they want de-nuclearisation but only under the precondition of the preservation of stability in North Korea,” says Ms Glaser. “The Chinese have no stomach for regime change in North Korea.”
“沒錯(cuò)，他們希望實(shí)現(xiàn)無核化，但前提條件是維護(hù)朝鮮的穩(wěn)定，”葛來儀表示，“中國不希望朝鮮發(fā)生政權(quán)更迭。”
When John Kerry, US secretary of state, travelled to Beijing and urged the Chinese government to embargo oil shipments to North Korea, he was rebuffed by Mr Wang, according to experts.
據(jù)專家稱，美國國務(wù)卿約翰克里(John Kerry)訪問北京并敦促中國政府對(duì)朝鮮實(shí)施石油禁運(yùn)，遭到了王毅的拒絕。
Meanwhile, the opposite approach seems to be in the air in Beijing. Cui Lei, a researcher at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies, wrote a widely followed opinion piece in a Singapore newspaper last month advocating treating North Korea similarly to India and Pakistan, which both tested nuclear bombs in 1998.
與此同時(shí)，中國似乎在試探相反的策略。北京中國國際問題研究院(China Institute of International Studies)研究員崔磊上月在一份新加坡報(bào)紙上發(fā)表了一篇廣受關(guān)注的評(píng)論文章，支持像對(duì)待印度和巴基斯坦那樣對(duì)待朝鮮。前兩個(gè)國家曾在1998年進(jìn)行核彈實(shí)驗(yàn)。
“We should readopt our India-Pakistan approach: acquiescence in North Korea’s nuclearisation, while refusing to legalise it,” he wrote.
他寫道：“我認(rèn)為，可以考慮采取印巴模式，默認(rèn)朝鮮的擁核事實(shí)，但不給予其合法地位。”
