2023考研英語閱讀氣候變化
Climate change
氣候變化
Good news at last?
終于來了好消息?
The climate may not be as sensitive to carbondioxide as previously believed
氣候對二氧化碳的敏感性可能低于先前的預期
CLIMATE science is famously complicated,
氣候科學的復雜程度眾所周知，
but one useful number to keep in mind is climate sensitivity.
但把一個指標記在腦中非常好用，那就是氣候敏感性。
This measures the amount of warming that can eventually be expected to follow a doublingin the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.
該指標表示預計大氣中二氧化碳濃度翻倍所能引致的升溫量。
The Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, in its most recent summary of the science behind its predictions, publishedin 2007, estimated that,
政府間氣候變化專門委員會在其最近一次關于其預測背后的科學性的概要中估計，
in present conditions, a doubling of CO2 would cause warming of about 3C, with uncertaintyof about a degree and a half in either direction.
在如今的情況下，二氧化碳濃度翻倍將造成3C左右的升溫，上下誤差在1.5度左右。
But it also says there is a small probability that the true number is much higher. Somerecent studies have suggested that it could be as high as 10C.
但該概要也聲稱，真實數據有少許可能還要高得多。一些近期的研究也猜測氣溫上升可能達到10C之高。
If that were true, disaster beckons.
如果這種猜測屬實，災難說來就來了。
But a paper published in this week s Science, by Andreas Schmittner of Oregon StateUniversity, suggests it is not.
但美國俄勒岡州立大學的安德烈亞斯-施密特納在本周《科學》雜志上刊登的一篇報告認為，情況并非如此。
In Dr Schmittner s analysis, the climate is less sensitive to carbon dioxide than was feared.
在施密特納博士的分析中，氣候并不像先前人們所擔憂的那樣對二氧化碳那么敏感。
Existing studies of climate sensitivity mostly rely on data gathered from weather stations,which go back to roughly 1850.
現有的關于氣候敏感性的研究主要基于氣象站收集的數據，可以追溯到公元1850年左右。
Dr Schmittner takes a different approach. His data come from the peak of the most recentice age, between 19,000 and 23,000 years ago.
施密特納博士采用了另外一種方法。他的數據來源于最近一次冰河時期的頂峰。
His group is not the first to use such data to probe the climate s sensitivity to carbondioxide. But their paper is the most thorough.
他的團隊不是第一個使用這些數據來探測氣候對二氧化碳的敏感性的團隊。但他們的報告是最全面徹底的。
Previous attempts had considered only small regions of the globe.
過去的研究只考慮了全球的小部分地區。
He has compiled enough information to make a credible stab at recreating the climate of theentire planet.
而他匯編了足夠的信息，可以確鑿地嘗試一下重建整個地球的氣候模型。
The result offers that rarest of things in climate sciencea bit of good news.
研究的結果給出了氣候科學中最為罕見之物一丁點好消息。
The group s most likely figure for climate sensitivity is 2.3C, which is more than half adegree lower than the consensus figure,
該研究組給出最有可能的氣候敏感性數字是2.3C，比公認的數據低了半度多，
with a 66% probability that it lies between 1.7 and 2.6C.
并且該數字有66%的幾率位于1.7C到2.6C之間。
More importantly, these results suggest an upper limit for climate sensitivity of around3.2C.
更重要的是，研究結果指出，氣候敏感性的上限在3.2C左右。
Before you take the SUV out for a celebratory spin, though, it is worth bearing in mind thatthis is only one study,
但是在你把SUV開出去兜風以作慶祝之前，要記住這只是一項研究而已，
and, like all such, it has its flaws.
并且就如同所有這類研究一樣研究自身也有缺陷。
The computer model used is of only middling sophistication, Dr Schmittner admits.
施密特納博士承認，該研究采用的電腦模型的復雜程度一般。
That may be one reason for the narrow range of his team s results.
這可能也是他的團隊實驗結果范圍較窄的一個原因。
And although the study s geographical coverage is the most comprehensive so far for workof this type, there are still blank areas,
而且，盡管這項研究的地理覆蓋范圍是迄今為止同類中最大的，它仍有空白區域
notably in Australia, Central Asia, South America and the northern Pacific Ocean.
尤其指澳洲，中亞，南美和北太平洋地區。
Moreover, some sceptics complain about the way ancient data of this type were used toconstruct a different but related piece of climate science:
此外，一些懷疑論者對這些遠古數據被用來構建一個不同的但是相關的氣候學分支：
the so-called hockey-stick model, which suggests that temperatures have risen suddenlysince the beginning of the industrial revolution.
所謂的曲棍球棒模型認為氣溫自從工業革命以后就突然上升滿腹牢騷。
It will be interesting to see if such sceptics are willing to be equally sceptical about ancientdata when they support their point of view.
看看當遠古數據支持這些懷疑論者的觀點時，這些人是否還愿意以同等的懷疑態度對待，這一定會非常有趣。
詞語解釋
1.sensitive a.敏感的;感覺的
Such discussions are sensitive because mr.strauss-kahn hasn t resigned.
這種討論是敏感的，因為卡恩尚未辭職。
2.complicate a.復雜的;麻煩的
But it could complicate the criminalprosecution.
但是那會讓刑事訴訟更加復雜化。
3.concentration n.集中;專心;關注
These are some suggestions for improving your concentration.
以下就是一些提高專注力的建議。
4.estimate v.估計，估算;評價
We cannot estimate how far the businiss will succeed.
我們無法評估生意究竟會有多成功。
5.probability n.可能性;幾率，概率
The second reason is a somewhat increased probability of deflation.
第二個理由是，通縮的可能性有所加大。
Climate change
氣候變化
Good news at last?
終于來了好消息?
The climate may not be as sensitive to carbondioxide as previously believed
氣候對二氧化碳的敏感性可能低于先前的預期
CLIMATE science is famously complicated,
氣候科學的復雜程度眾所周知，
but one useful number to keep in mind is climate sensitivity.
但把一個指標記在腦中非常好用，那就是氣候敏感性。
This measures the amount of warming that can eventually be expected to follow a doublingin the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.
該指標表示預計大氣中二氧化碳濃度翻倍所能引致的升溫量。
The Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, in its most recent summary of the science behind its predictions, publishedin 2007, estimated that,
政府間氣候變化專門委員會在其最近一次關于其預測背后的科學性的概要中估計，
in present conditions, a doubling of CO2 would cause warming of about 3C, with uncertaintyof about a degree and a half in either direction.
在如今的情況下，二氧化碳濃度翻倍將造成3C左右的升溫，上下誤差在1.5度左右。
But it also says there is a small probability that the true number is much higher. Somerecent studies have suggested that it could be as high as 10C.
但該概要也聲稱，真實數據有少許可能還要高得多。一些近期的研究也猜測氣溫上升可能達到10C之高。
If that were true, disaster beckons.
如果這種猜測屬實，災難說來就來了。
But a paper published in this week s Science, by Andreas Schmittner of Oregon StateUniversity, suggests it is not.
但美國俄勒岡州立大學的安德烈亞斯-施密特納在本周《科學》雜志上刊登的一篇報告認為，情況并非如此。
In Dr Schmittner s analysis, the climate is less sensitive to carbon dioxide than was feared.
在施密特納博士的分析中，氣候并不像先前人們所擔憂的那樣對二氧化碳那么敏感。
Existing studies of climate sensitivity mostly rely on data gathered from weather stations,which go back to roughly 1850.
現有的關于氣候敏感性的研究主要基于氣象站收集的數據，可以追溯到公元1850年左右。
Dr Schmittner takes a different approach. His data come from the peak of the most recentice age, between 19,000 and 23,000 years ago.
施密特納博士采用了另外一種方法。他的數據來源于最近一次冰河時期的頂峰。
His group is not the first to use such data to probe the climate s sensitivity to carbondioxide. But their paper is the most thorough.
他的團隊不是第一個使用這些數據來探測氣候對二氧化碳的敏感性的團隊。但他們的報告是最全面徹底的。
Previous attempts had considered only small regions of the globe.
過去的研究只考慮了全球的小部分地區。
He has compiled enough information to make a credible stab at recreating the climate of theentire planet.
而他匯編了足夠的信息，可以確鑿地嘗試一下重建整個地球的氣候模型。
The result offers that rarest of things in climate sciencea bit of good news.
研究的結果給出了氣候科學中最為罕見之物一丁點好消息。
The group s most likely figure for climate sensitivity is 2.3C, which is more than half adegree lower than the consensus figure,
該研究組給出最有可能的氣候敏感性數字是2.3C，比公認的數據低了半度多，
with a 66% probability that it lies between 1.7 and 2.6C.
并且該數字有66%的幾率位于1.7C到2.6C之間。
More importantly, these results suggest an upper limit for climate sensitivity of around3.2C.
更重要的是，研究結果指出，氣候敏感性的上限在3.2C左右。
Before you take the SUV out for a celebratory spin, though, it is worth bearing in mind thatthis is only one study,
但是在你把SUV開出去兜風以作慶祝之前，要記住這只是一項研究而已，
and, like all such, it has its flaws.
并且就如同所有這類研究一樣研究自身也有缺陷。
The computer model used is of only middling sophistication, Dr Schmittner admits.
施密特納博士承認，該研究采用的電腦模型的復雜程度一般。
That may be one reason for the narrow range of his team s results.
這可能也是他的團隊實驗結果范圍較窄的一個原因。
And although the study s geographical coverage is the most comprehensive so far for workof this type, there are still blank areas,
而且，盡管這項研究的地理覆蓋范圍是迄今為止同類中最大的，它仍有空白區域
notably in Australia, Central Asia, South America and the northern Pacific Ocean.
尤其指澳洲，中亞，南美和北太平洋地區。
Moreover, some sceptics complain about the way ancient data of this type were used toconstruct a different but related piece of climate science:
此外，一些懷疑論者對這些遠古數據被用來構建一個不同的但是相關的氣候學分支：
the so-called hockey-stick model, which suggests that temperatures have risen suddenlysince the beginning of the industrial revolution.
所謂的曲棍球棒模型認為氣溫自從工業革命以后就突然上升滿腹牢騷。
It will be interesting to see if such sceptics are willing to be equally sceptical about ancientdata when they support their point of view.
看看當遠古數據支持這些懷疑論者的觀點時，這些人是否還愿意以同等的懷疑態度對待，這一定會非常有趣。
詞語解釋
1.sensitive a.敏感的;感覺的
Such discussions are sensitive because mr.strauss-kahn hasn t resigned.
這種討論是敏感的，因為卡恩尚未辭職。
2.complicate a.復雜的;麻煩的
But it could complicate the criminalprosecution.
但是那會讓刑事訴訟更加復雜化。
3.concentration n.集中;專心;關注
These are some suggestions for improving your concentration.
以下就是一些提高專注力的建議。
4.estimate v.估計，估算;評價
We cannot estimate how far the businiss will succeed.
我們無法評估生意究竟會有多成功。
5.probability n.可能性;幾率，概率
The second reason is a somewhat increased probability of deflation.
第二個理由是，通縮的可能性有所加大。
