China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, deb
China's economy expanded at a steady 6.7 percent in the third quarter and looks set to hit Beijing's full-year target, fueled by stronger government spending, record bank lending and a red-hot property market that are adding to its growing pile of debt.
Wednesday's data painted a picture of an economy that is slowly stabilizing but increasingly dependent on government spending and a housing boom for growth, as private investment and exports remain stubbornly weak.
Some economists believe Beijing has had to "double down" on stimulus this year to meet its official growth range of 6.5 to 7 percent, and say the government's obsession with meeting hard targets may hurt both planned reforms and the long-term health of the world's second-largest economy.
"So far this year they have clearly chosen to do everything they can to meet the growth targets, and now there is a little bit of an upward surprise from the housing market which actually will help them with GDP growth this year," said Louis Kuijs, head Of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
"The question really is, is the leadership willing to move to somewhat lower growth targets in order to put growth on a more sustainable footing, or will it feel obliged to continue to hang on to those very high growth targets."
The economy grew at the same clip in the third quarter year-on-year as in the first and second quarters, as analysts polled by Reuters had expected. Government infrastructure projects and the property boom have spurred prices and demand for raw materials and goods from cement and steel to furniture.
On a quarterly basis, it grew 1.8 percent, again in line with expectations but easing slightly from the previous period.
PROPERTY MARKET BIGGEST RISK FOR NOW
Economists believe the greatest near-term risk for China is a possible correction in the high-flying property market, which accounts for about 15 percent of GDP.
Real estate investment accelerated in September and home sales soared, highlighting persistent investor demand even as more cities tighten measures to curb prices.
Property investment growth ticked up to 7.8 percent in September on-year, and property sales surged 34 percent, though new construction starts fell 19.4 percent, suggesting sentiment among builders may be shifting as the government looks to cool the buying frenzy.
A wave of restrictions imposed on buyers in major cities since early October has resulted in a sharp drop in sales and authorities are stepping up pressure on speculators.
Shanghai said on Tuesday it had punished some property agencies for falsifying contracts and had launched probes into some developers suspected of raising prices without authorization.
Most economists do not expect house prices to collapse, arguing the market is supported by steady migration to bigger cities, but memories are still fresh of authorities' heavy-handed attempt to cool surging stock markets last year, which triggered a crash and an unprecedented government rescue.
The property craze has also heightened concerns about China's growing debt and the risks to its financial system, as much of the record loan growth has been driven by mortgages.
China's debt has soared to 250 percent of GDP and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in September that a banking crisis was looming in the next three years.
"We think that the cooling measures in property market will weigh on China's economy over the coming quarters," Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao in Hong Kong said in a note.
But statistics bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun said "the impact (of property adjustment measures) on the economy will not be very big" in the short-term.
MOST SEPTEMBER DATA SHOWS MODEST IMPROVEMENT
Consumption contributed 71 percent of GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year, compared with 66.4 percent for 2024. The increase is partly due to contracting net exports but also indicates some success in Beijing's attempts to rebalance the economy from an over reliance on investment-led growth.
September indicators were mostly in line with expectations and improved slightly from August, but industrial output growth unexpectedly cooled to 6.1 percent from a year earlier, versus expectations for 6.4 percent.
Fixed-asset investment rose 8.2 percent in January-September from a year earlier, as expected, as the government cranked up infrastructure spending to support the economy. Fiscal spending in the nine-month period climbed 12.5 percent.
Private investment growth picked up to 4.5 percent in September after falling to record lows in recent months, but still significantly lags investment by state-owned firms. For the first nine months, private investment rose just 2.5 percent.
Retail sales rose 10.7 percent in September on-year, beating expectations of 10.6 percent as home buyers bought appliances and decorated, while subsidies fueled strong sales of new cars.
China's economy expanded 6.9 percent in 2024, the slowest pace in a quarter of a century.
While analysts expect China to meet its growth target this year, as usual, many remain skeptical of the official numbers, especially as growth has remain unchanged for three straight quarters even as the country attempts a major economic transition.
"The official GDP figures remain too stable to tell us much about the performance of China's economy. Our own measure of economic activity suggests that growth actually picked up last quarter, though the improvement clearly won't last," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics in Singapore wrote in a note.
Capital Economics' calculations suggest the economy is growing at around 5 percent.
譯文：
中國第三季度經濟增長在6.7%穩(wěn)定,似乎將北京的全年目標,受較強的政府開支,記錄銀行貸款和灼熱的房地產市場,增加其日益增長的債務。
周三公布的數(shù)據(jù)描繪了一幅經濟正緩慢穩(wěn)定但越來越依賴政府支出和房地產繁榮增長,私人投資和出口仍疲弱。
一些經濟學家認為中國政府不得不“雙下降”今年刺激來滿足其官方增長6.5 - 7%,并說政府對會議的硬目標可能損害改革計劃和世界第二大經濟體的長期健康。
“今年到目前為止他們已經明顯選擇盡他們所能來滿足增長目標,現(xiàn)在有一點向上驚喜從房地產市場實際上會幫助他們今年GDP增長,“Louis Kuijs說,亞洲經濟在香港牛津經濟研究院。
“真正的問題是,是領導愿意搬到低增長目標為了把增長放在一個更可持續(xù)的基礎之上,還是會覺得有必要繼續(xù)堅持那些很高的增長目標。”
同樣的經濟增長速度在第三季度同比在第一和第二季度,路透調查的分析師預期。政府基礎設施項目和房地產繁榮刺激了價格和對原材料和商品的需求從水泥和鋼鐵的家具。
再次按季度增長了1.8%,符合預期,但從前期略有緩解。
房地產市場目前最大的風險
經濟學家認為,中國是一個最大的短期風險可能修正飛漲的房地產市場,約占GDP的15%。
9月房地產投資加速和房屋銷售飆升,強調持續(xù)的投資者需求即使更多的城市收緊措施抑制價格上漲。
房地產投資增長在9月同比上升7.8%,房地產銷售上漲34%,盡管下降了19.4%,新開工項目建議人氣建筑商可以轉變?yōu)檎雌饋砜豳徺I狂潮。
一波又一波的限制在主要城市買家自10月初以來導致銷售急劇下降,當局正加大對投機者的壓力。
上海周二表示,該公司已經懲罰一些房產中介偽造合同和發(fā)起了探討一些開發(fā)商涉嫌擅自提高價格。
大多數(shù)經濟學家不希望房價崩潰,認為市場支持穩(wěn)定遷移到更大的城市,但記憶還新鮮當局的嚴厲試圖冷卻去年股市飆升,引發(fā)事故和前所未有的政府救援。
房地產熱潮也加劇擔憂中國日益增長的債務和金融系統(tǒng)風險,盡可能多的記錄貸款增長推動了抵押貸款。
中國的債務飆升至GDP的250%,國際清算銀行(BIS)9月警告說,銀行業(yè)危機即將在未來三年。
“我們認為,房地產市場的降溫措施將拖累中國經濟在未來幾個季度,"德國商業(yè)銀行的經濟學家在香港周浩在一份報告中稱。
但統(tǒng)計局發(fā)言人盛來運表示,“(房地產調整措施)對經濟的影響不會很大”在短期內。
大多數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示9月溫和改善
消費貢獻了71%的GDP增長在今年前三個季度,2024年這一比例為66.4%。凈出口的增加在一定程度上是由于收縮也表明一些成功在北京試圖平衡經濟過分依賴投資導向型增長。
9月指標大多是符合預期,從8月略有好轉,但工業(yè)產出同比增長意外冷卻到6.1%,與預期為6.4%。
固定資產投資較上年同期9月份上漲8.2%,正如預期的那樣,政府提高了基礎設施支出來支持經濟。財政支出在9個月期間上漲了12.5%。
私人投資增長了9月份的4.5%降至歷史低點后在最近幾個月,但仍然大大落后于國有企業(yè)的投資。前九個月,私人投資僅上漲2.5%。
零售銷售在9月同比上漲了10.7%,超過預期的10.6%,購房者買電器和裝飾,而補貼推動強勁銷售的新車。
中國的經濟在2024年增長6.9%,在四分之一個世紀以來的最低值。
盡管分析師預計中國今年達到增長目標,像往常一樣,許多的官方數(shù)字仍持懷疑態(tài)度,尤其當增長已連續(xù)三個季度保持不變,即使這個國家主要經濟過渡。
“官方GDP數(shù)據(jù)依舊穩(wěn)定告訴我們很多關于中國經濟的表現(xiàn)。我們自己的衡量經濟活動的增長表明,拿起最后一個季度,盡管顯然不會持續(xù)改善,”資本經濟(Capital Economics)的朱利安?Evans-Pritchard中國經濟學家在新加坡在一份報告中寫道。
Capital Economics的計算表明,經濟增長在5%左右。
China's economy expanded at a steady 6.7 percent in the third quarter and looks set to hit Beijing's full-year target, fueled by stronger government spending, record bank lending and a red-hot property market that are adding to its growing pile of debt.
Wednesday's data painted a picture of an economy that is slowly stabilizing but increasingly dependent on government spending and a housing boom for growth, as private investment and exports remain stubbornly weak.
Some economists believe Beijing has had to "double down" on stimulus this year to meet its official growth range of 6.5 to 7 percent, and say the government's obsession with meeting hard targets may hurt both planned reforms and the long-term health of the world's second-largest economy.
"So far this year they have clearly chosen to do everything they can to meet the growth targets, and now there is a little bit of an upward surprise from the housing market which actually will help them with GDP growth this year," said Louis Kuijs, head Of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
"The question really is, is the leadership willing to move to somewhat lower growth targets in order to put growth on a more sustainable footing, or will it feel obliged to continue to hang on to those very high growth targets."
The economy grew at the same clip in the third quarter year-on-year as in the first and second quarters, as analysts polled by Reuters had expected. Government infrastructure projects and the property boom have spurred prices and demand for raw materials and goods from cement and steel to furniture.
On a quarterly basis, it grew 1.8 percent, again in line with expectations but easing slightly from the previous period.
PROPERTY MARKET BIGGEST RISK FOR NOW
Economists believe the greatest near-term risk for China is a possible correction in the high-flying property market, which accounts for about 15 percent of GDP.
Real estate investment accelerated in September and home sales soared, highlighting persistent investor demand even as more cities tighten measures to curb prices.
Property investment growth ticked up to 7.8 percent in September on-year, and property sales surged 34 percent, though new construction starts fell 19.4 percent, suggesting sentiment among builders may be shifting as the government looks to cool the buying frenzy.
A wave of restrictions imposed on buyers in major cities since early October has resulted in a sharp drop in sales and authorities are stepping up pressure on speculators.
Shanghai said on Tuesday it had punished some property agencies for falsifying contracts and had launched probes into some developers suspected of raising prices without authorization.
Most economists do not expect house prices to collapse, arguing the market is supported by steady migration to bigger cities, but memories are still fresh of authorities' heavy-handed attempt to cool surging stock markets last year, which triggered a crash and an unprecedented government rescue.
The property craze has also heightened concerns about China's growing debt and the risks to its financial system, as much of the record loan growth has been driven by mortgages.
China's debt has soared to 250 percent of GDP and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in September that a banking crisis was looming in the next three years.
"We think that the cooling measures in property market will weigh on China's economy over the coming quarters," Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao in Hong Kong said in a note.
But statistics bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun said "the impact (of property adjustment measures) on the economy will not be very big" in the short-term.
MOST SEPTEMBER DATA SHOWS MODEST IMPROVEMENT
Consumption contributed 71 percent of GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year, compared with 66.4 percent for 2024. The increase is partly due to contracting net exports but also indicates some success in Beijing's attempts to rebalance the economy from an over reliance on investment-led growth.
September indicators were mostly in line with expectations and improved slightly from August, but industrial output growth unexpectedly cooled to 6.1 percent from a year earlier, versus expectations for 6.4 percent.
Fixed-asset investment rose 8.2 percent in January-September from a year earlier, as expected, as the government cranked up infrastructure spending to support the economy. Fiscal spending in the nine-month period climbed 12.5 percent.
Private investment growth picked up to 4.5 percent in September after falling to record lows in recent months, but still significantly lags investment by state-owned firms. For the first nine months, private investment rose just 2.5 percent.
Retail sales rose 10.7 percent in September on-year, beating expectations of 10.6 percent as home buyers bought appliances and decorated, while subsidies fueled strong sales of new cars.
China's economy expanded 6.9 percent in 2024, the slowest pace in a quarter of a century.
While analysts expect China to meet its growth target this year, as usual, many remain skeptical of the official numbers, especially as growth has remain unchanged for three straight quarters even as the country attempts a major economic transition.
"The official GDP figures remain too stable to tell us much about the performance of China's economy. Our own measure of economic activity suggests that growth actually picked up last quarter, though the improvement clearly won't last," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics in Singapore wrote in a note.
Capital Economics' calculations suggest the economy is growing at around 5 percent.
譯文：
中國第三季度經濟增長在6.7%穩(wěn)定,似乎將北京的全年目標,受較強的政府開支,記錄銀行貸款和灼熱的房地產市場,增加其日益增長的債務。
周三公布的數(shù)據(jù)描繪了一幅經濟正緩慢穩(wěn)定但越來越依賴政府支出和房地產繁榮增長,私人投資和出口仍疲弱。
一些經濟學家認為中國政府不得不“雙下降”今年刺激來滿足其官方增長6.5 - 7%,并說政府對會議的硬目標可能損害改革計劃和世界第二大經濟體的長期健康。
“今年到目前為止他們已經明顯選擇盡他們所能來滿足增長目標,現(xiàn)在有一點向上驚喜從房地產市場實際上會幫助他們今年GDP增長,“Louis Kuijs說,亞洲經濟在香港牛津經濟研究院。
“真正的問題是,是領導愿意搬到低增長目標為了把增長放在一個更可持續(xù)的基礎之上,還是會覺得有必要繼續(xù)堅持那些很高的增長目標。”
同樣的經濟增長速度在第三季度同比在第一和第二季度,路透調查的分析師預期。政府基礎設施項目和房地產繁榮刺激了價格和對原材料和商品的需求從水泥和鋼鐵的家具。
再次按季度增長了1.8%,符合預期,但從前期略有緩解。
房地產市場目前最大的風險
經濟學家認為,中國是一個最大的短期風險可能修正飛漲的房地產市場,約占GDP的15%。
9月房地產投資加速和房屋銷售飆升,強調持續(xù)的投資者需求即使更多的城市收緊措施抑制價格上漲。
房地產投資增長在9月同比上升7.8%,房地產銷售上漲34%,盡管下降了19.4%,新開工項目建議人氣建筑商可以轉變?yōu)檎雌饋砜豳徺I狂潮。
一波又一波的限制在主要城市買家自10月初以來導致銷售急劇下降,當局正加大對投機者的壓力。
上海周二表示,該公司已經懲罰一些房產中介偽造合同和發(fā)起了探討一些開發(fā)商涉嫌擅自提高價格。
大多數(shù)經濟學家不希望房價崩潰,認為市場支持穩(wěn)定遷移到更大的城市,但記憶還新鮮當局的嚴厲試圖冷卻去年股市飆升,引發(fā)事故和前所未有的政府救援。
房地產熱潮也加劇擔憂中國日益增長的債務和金融系統(tǒng)風險,盡可能多的記錄貸款增長推動了抵押貸款。
中國的債務飆升至GDP的250%,國際清算銀行(BIS)9月警告說,銀行業(yè)危機即將在未來三年。
“我們認為,房地產市場的降溫措施將拖累中國經濟在未來幾個季度,"德國商業(yè)銀行的經濟學家在香港周浩在一份報告中稱。
但統(tǒng)計局發(fā)言人盛來運表示,“(房地產調整措施)對經濟的影響不會很大”在短期內。
大多數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示9月溫和改善
消費貢獻了71%的GDP增長在今年前三個季度,2024年這一比例為66.4%。凈出口的增加在一定程度上是由于收縮也表明一些成功在北京試圖平衡經濟過分依賴投資導向型增長。
9月指標大多是符合預期,從8月略有好轉,但工業(yè)產出同比增長意外冷卻到6.1%,與預期為6.4%。
固定資產投資較上年同期9月份上漲8.2%,正如預期的那樣,政府提高了基礎設施支出來支持經濟。財政支出在9個月期間上漲了12.5%。
私人投資增長了9月份的4.5%降至歷史低點后在最近幾個月,但仍然大大落后于國有企業(yè)的投資。前九個月,私人投資僅上漲2.5%。
零售銷售在9月同比上漲了10.7%,超過預期的10.6%,購房者買電器和裝飾,而補貼推動強勁銷售的新車。
中國的經濟在2024年增長6.9%,在四分之一個世紀以來的最低值。
盡管分析師預計中國今年達到增長目標,像往常一樣,許多的官方數(shù)字仍持懷疑態(tài)度,尤其當增長已連續(xù)三個季度保持不變,即使這個國家主要經濟過渡。
“官方GDP數(shù)據(jù)依舊穩(wěn)定告訴我們很多關于中國經濟的表現(xiàn)。我們自己的衡量經濟活動的增長表明,拿起最后一個季度,盡管顯然不會持續(xù)改善,”資本經濟(Capital Economics)的朱利安?Evans-Pritchard中國經濟學家在新加坡在一份報告中寫道。
Capital Economics的計算表明,經濟增長在5%左右。
